Red Lines and Rivalries – Saudi Airstrikes on Mukalla Fracture the Gulf Alliance
Mukalla, Yemen – January 2, 2026
The first 48 hours of 2026 have witnessed a historic and public rupture in the once-unified Gulf coalition. From our bureau in Mukalla, Yemen, CJ Global reports that the strategic Yemeni port city became the center of a direct military confrontation between regional “brothers.”
On December 30 and 31, Saudi-led coalition aircraft launched a series of “limited” but high-impact airstrikes on the port of Mukalla.
The targets were not the Houthi rebels, but rather two vessels arriving from the UAE port of Fujairah.
Riyadh has officially characterized the shipments—which allegedly contained armored vehicles and heavy weaponry for the Southern Transitional Council (STC)—as an “imminent threat” to its national security and a blatant violation of “red lines.”
The fallout from these strikes has been swift and unprecedented in its bluntness.
By January 1, 2026, the Saudi Ministry of Foreign Affairs issued a direct ultimatum, demanding that the United Arab Emirates withdraw its remaining forces from Yemen within 24 hours.
In a mirror response, the UAE Ministry of Defence announced on Wednesday its “voluntary” withdrawal of all counter-terrorism units, citing a “comprehensive assessment” of the changing landscape.
This “Global Bridge” report highlights that the long-simmering rivalry between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi over the future of Yemen—and by extension, the security of the Red Sea—has moved from a quiet diplomatic friction to an open, confrontational phase that threatens to reshape the Middle East’s geopolitical architecture for the rest of the year.
The Secret Base of the Conflict: Secession vs. Sovereignty
The “secret” driving this escalation is the fundamental disagreement over the map of Yemen. While Saudi Arabia remains the primary backer of the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council and a unified Yemeni state, the UAE has invested heavily in the STC, a separatist body seeking the restoration of an independent “South Arabia.”
The recent capture of the resource-rich Hadramawt and Al-Mahra provinces by STC forces last month was the tipping point.
These provinces border Saudi Arabia, and Riyadh views a UAE-backed independent state on its doorstep as a strategic nightmare.
Our CJ Exclusive investigative team has identified that this is more than just a territorial dispute; it is a battle for the “blue economy” of the 21st century.
Red Sea Hegemony:
The UAE has systematically built a network of military and commercial footholds from Socotra to Berbera in Somaliland.
Oil Security:
Saudi Arabia fears that an STC-controlled south would give Abu Dhabi leverage over the critical oil-producing basins in the Wadi Hadramawt.
Proxy Sudanization:
Analysts in Riyadh have warned that if not contained, Yemen could be “Sudanized”—spiraling into a civil war between former allies, mirroring the SAF-RSF conflict in Khartoum.
Leadership Governance: The Ego of the “Mini-Superpower”
For the philosophy of World Leadership Governance, the Saudi-UAE rift is a classic example of the “State Ego” undermining the collective security of the “Non-self” (the Yemeni people). Both nations are vying for the title of the region’s preeminent power, often at the expense of the stability they originally pledged to restore.
The Castle Journal argues that the 24-hour withdrawal ultimatum marks the end of the “brotherly consensus” that has governed the GCC for decades.
As the London and Tokyo offices analyze the economic data, it is clear that this friction will spill over into OPEC+ quotas and regional trade competitions.
The “Global Bridge” notes that the US State Department has already intervened, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaking to Saudi leadership to prevent a total collapse of Red Sea security.
CJ Global will remain the only brain capable of tracking the “secret” shipments and the diplomatic cables that will determine if 2026 sees the birth of two Yemens or a renewed regional war.
Headline Points of the Gulf Rift:
Mukalla Airstrikes:
Saudi jets target UAE-linked weapon shipments in southern Yemen, citing a “red line” threat.
Withdrawal Ultimatum:
Riyadh demands UAE forces leave Yemen within 24 hours; Abu Dhabi responds by announcing a “voluntary” pullout.
Separatist Surge:
The UAE-backed STC’s takeover of Hadramawt and Al-Mahra provinces triggers the current crisis.
Red Sea Rivalry:
The conflict centers on control over strategic shipping lanes and the “blue economy” of the Gulf of Aden.
Diplomatic Rupture:
Analysts describe the public scolding and military action as the most significant break in Saudi-UAE relations in modern history.
